Old Wive's Tales

Two things I have been told since starting the game have been;

1.  Loot will always be very bad after getting an Uber loot or even a significantly good loot.
2.  Loot is always bad in the hours before a VU.

I have always had my personal doubts about the first one, but if you hear something often enough you will start to believe it.
The second one is one that I have believed in and even commented about in a previous post in this blog.

Some things happened in my personal hunting this week that made me stop and think about these two theories as well as go back and look at my past to see what the reality of it is.


My best loot to date by far was the Hispidus I got last summer.

Hispidus

Young

16380 PED

Monday, July 12, 2010 03:04

After I got that I stood around Twin Peaks for a week or so in shock. I Sold off the oils received and started trying to figure out how to put a price on the Stingury dagger that was in it as well.

My friend Skeezer had been trying to get me to visit him on Rocktropia and now that I had the cash I decided it was a good time to do it. I spent a few more days gathering up supplies and buying things I would try and sell there as well and then TPed up.

Skeezer showed me around to some of the TPs and then the next day I started gathering more on my own.  I found a tp with dragons on it and started shooting one just to see if I could kill it or not. I died a good half dozen times but ended up killing it.

My first 3 dragons killed gave me a global and a HOF.

Lemmy Dragon

Young

135 PED

Thursday, July 22, 2010 03:01

Lemmy Dragon

Young

696 PED

Thursday, July 22, 2010 05:22

If it wasn't for the Hispidus 10 days earlier then this HOF would have been my largest hunting loot to date, and this was with <500 ped cycled between them.

This started a new era in my EU carrier. I went from eco drone hunter to MU seeking swirly junkie.  I managed to maintain the same 85-90% return rates vs the TT but as one of the only consistent dragon hunters MU was alot more favorable for me than any hunting I had done on Calypso.  I traded as much as I could to cover costs of travel between planets and to supplement my monthly deposits.

This last weekend I got my second Uber (mostly oils this time)

Joplin Dragon

Young

2260 PED

Sunday, March 13, 2011 21:59

Following this I did 4 hunting runs over the next couple of days of which 2 resulted in no globals. On average a dragon hunt for me with no globals results in a 200ped loss vs ammo/gun/amp decay. The other 2 runs were still slight losses, but about what I would consider a normal low average return.

	Joplin Dragon	Mature	98 PED	Tuesday, March 15, 2011 06:08
	Joplin Dragon	Young	115 PED	Monday, March 14, 2011 07:24

Then came night before a VU where I have told myself time and time again is a period when I should not hunt and instead only trade or socialize.  I wasn't feeling social though, and had extra ped on my card from the Uber a few days before, so I hunted anyways and Just a couple hours before the severs went down I had a great run!

	Joplin Dragon	Mature	164 PED	Wednesday, March 16, 2011 06:04
	Joplin Dragon	Old	334 PED	Wednesday, March 16, 2011 05:49
	Joplin Dragon	Old	69 PED	Wednesday, March 16, 2011 05:09

2 Globals and a HOF in one run isn't unheard of, or even that unusual on mobs of this size. You need runs like this to bring your 60ish% runs averages up to an acceptable level.

What really made me stop and think though, is that there were two reasons why my loot should have been significantly bad that night and yet I had what I would consider a very good night hunting.

We look for patterns in a random system, and we see what we look for.  What should we do though when something doesn't fit into the pattern?  Is it a fluke, or is the pattern wrong? Or maybe the pattern doesn't even exist. After all we don't exist, it is just a 'virtual' Universe.

After looking back over my own personal data and reconsidering the 2 "Old Wives Tales"

1.  Loot will always be very bad after getting an Uber loot or even a significantly good loot.
2.  Loot is always bad in the hours before a VU.

I need to re-think or re-solidify my beliefs in how I should approach things in the future. After all "A Failure to Plan, is A Plan to Fail."

As for the first one, I seriously think that an uber loot will have little to no affect on your future or near future loots. What may affect this is a person may make poorer or less educated decisions immediately after receiving more cash than they are accustomed to which would result in a reduced return rate in most activities.

I think it may still be wise to avoid heavy spending activities right before a VU, but understand that this is likely just to appease superstition and has no real proof against it since I have observed both good and bad loot right before expected server shutdowns.

Good luck and have fun,

narfi

Bonus Note: When using (L) plates it is a good idea to keep an eye on the TT value and swap them around between the armor parts as they decay. For example the harness and attached plate will decay faster than the gloves. (alternatively keep a few extra plates ready to swap out when one completely breaks)